INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — Hurricanes Harvey and Irma will probably wind up costing the U.S. Gross domestic product near 0.5% in the third quarters, evaluates FTR’s Noel Perry.
Despite the fact that it’s too soon to gather any information from this second real tropical storm in three weeks, because of FTR’s focus on understanding Hurricane Harvey, Noel could give an underlying appraisal at the current year’s FTR Transportation Convention.
Like Harvey, Irma is principally a water occasion, he clarified, despite the fact that the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida got some huge breezes. With Harvey the wet originated from the skies, with Irma a greater amount of it is coming as tempest surge from the sea. That originates from the way that Irma will influence more than double the drift line touched by Harvey.
What’s more, Harvey was a littler tempest. That turned into a major ordeal when it slowed down directly finished Houston, setting the adjacent U.S. record for supported precipitation. When it hit Florida, Irma accelerated its development and will have vanished in Indiana, a thousand miles from Key West in the time that Harvey hunched down finished Houston. That implies Irma’s belongings might be less cataclysmic in any one place yet will visit numerous more places. One other distinction is that Houston is a noteworthy assembling town, with the synthetic plants directly down on the water. In Florida, it’s predominantly customer movement. In this way, the impacts in Texas will be vigorously tank truck and railcar related, while in Florida it will be dry vans brimming with shopper products and flatbeds loaded with divider board.
Together Florida and Texas represent about 15% of the U.S. economy. The storm interruptions of those two economic engines, 4th and 2nd respectively among the states, will cost U.S. GDP about .5% in the third quarter of 2017, Perry said.
The two states account for about seven per cent of U.S. trucking activity on a typical day and affect another four percent as important parts of truck trip circuits.
Using Harvey as a guide, this week will be a major down week for trucking in the Southeast, with volumes off perhaps 25%. Inbound to Florida, a headhaul in the best of time will probably demand a premium, with prices up 10% to 30% depending on the lane. Prices may fall outbound. Volume should get back to normal during the second week, at least inbound, then run modestly higher for six months or more.
Noel commented: “We see from the Trans4Cast report (a partnership between Truckstop.com and FTR) that national market tightness jumped up sharply one week after Harvey and jumped some more the second week. Expect another couple of weeks of tightening from Harvey. Throw in the Harvey-inspired fuel price hikes and you get 20%+ jumps in average national spot market pricing. It doesn’t take long for such regional stress to show up in the national numbers. It is certain that Irma will occasion several more weekly jumps.”
In addition, FTR predicted that the storms would impact the pending ELD mandate. Such storms usually affect the large markets from three to six months. With the ELD mandate only three months out, the industry could have troubled markets into the summer of 2018, the FTR warned.